People are constantly asking how stable the succession process is in Russia. As far as I can tell, the are three possible scenarios: 1) the elites can’t reach a consensus, and the parties take a life of their own; 2) With the stakes high, the parties reach an agreement before the election and succession is successful; 3) The elite reach some sort of agreement before the election and then battle for power after that. any comment on these ?

I’ll offer a fourth:
The elections go forward in a relatively free manner as Putin realizes that the best way to maintain his influence is to rely on his approval rating. There’s relatively equal access to media;
United Russia doesn’t have a monopoly on fundraising; and the election commission isn’t stacked.
Ultimately, this would best protect Putin in the future—the most important interest he has riding in this election.

Of course, this might be too rational of an alternative, and Putin is too suspicious to trust the public completely.